Mülheim-Kärlich 3–4 Schott Mainz: Result & Stats

Mülheim-Kärlich

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Schott Mainz

8/14/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Kunstrasenplatz Mülheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich20%

×Draw20%

Schott Mainz60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mülheim-KärlichExpected goals in this matchSchott Mainz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.27

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.24

Schott Mainz

2.27

Schott Mainz creates 83% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

1.63

creates per match

2.63

1.92

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.63

Schott Mainz

2.63

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.92

Schott Mainz

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Schott Mainz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw

40%

Mülheim-Kärlich or Schott Mainz

80%

Draw or Schott Mainz

80%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+

8%

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals

71%

Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals

35%

Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals

13%

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

90%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

66%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)

25%

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.63 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more

20%

level

20%

Schott Mainz scores more

60%

Schott Mainz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff