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Schott Mainz vs Mechtersheim — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
2 – 1
Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
4/29/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 6Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Schott Mainz78%
×Draw12%
Mechtersheim9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
3.30
Mechtersheim
1.10

Schott Mainz creates 200% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
4.00
Mechtersheim
1.20

allows per match

Schott Mainz
1.00
Mechtersheim
2.60

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Mechtersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
91%
Schott Mainz or Mechtersheim
88%
Draw or Mechtersheim
22%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
60%
Mechtersheim wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
96%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
83%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
62%
Mechtersheim 1+ goals
67%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
30%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
89%
Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 4.00 + Mechtersheim defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.30

Mechtersheim attack 1.20 + Schott Mainz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
78%
level
12%
Mechtersheim scores more
9%

Schott Mainz at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schott Mainz vs Mechtersheim

Schott Mainz beat Mechtersheim 2-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium in Mainz-Mombach.