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Mechtersheim vs Schott Mainz — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
FT
1 – 5
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
3/25/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 1Stadion an der Kirschenallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mechtersheim20%
×Draw22%
Schott Mainz58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mechtersheim
1.10
Schott Mainz
2.00

Schott Mainz creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mechtersheim
1.00
Schott Mainz
2.40

allows per match

Mechtersheim
1.60
Schott Mainz
1.20

finishing

Mechtersheim+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mechtersheim ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mechtersheim or draw
42%
Mechtersheim or Schott Mainz
78%
Draw or Schott Mainz
80%

Winning margin

Mechtersheim wins by 2+
8%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Mechtersheim 1+ goals
67%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
30%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
10%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
86%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
59%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
26%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mechtersheim at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mechtersheim attack 1.00 + Schott Mainz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Schott Mainz attack 2.40 + Mechtersheim defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mechtersheim scores more
20%
level
22%
Schott Mainz scores more
58%

Schott Mainz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Promotion Round: Mechtersheim 1–5 Schott Mainz

Schott Mainz beat Mechtersheim 5-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Kirschenallee in Römerberg.