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Schott Mainz vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
L. Thum 33', 24', 5' (pen)
3/22/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 23Mz-Mombach BSA KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Schott Mainz67%
×Draw17%
FV Engers 0716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
2.75
FV Engers 07
1.31

Schott Mainz creates 110% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
3.78
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.67
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 77Under: 2377%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
84%
Schott Mainz or FV Engers 07
83%
Draw or FV Engers 07
33%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
46%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
93%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
75%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
51%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
73%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
38%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
80%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.75

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
67%
level
17%
FV Engers 07 scores more
16%

Schott Mainz at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. ThumPenalty
24'
L. Thum
33'
L. Thum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schott Mainz vs FV Engers 07

Schott Mainz beat FV Engers 07 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 22, 2025.

Goals: L. Thum (5' pen, 24', 33').

The match was played at Mz-Mombach BSA KR1 in Mainz-Mombach.