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FV Engers 07 vs Schott Mainz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
3/4/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FV Engers 0726%
×Draw21%
Schott Mainz53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Engers 07
1.39
Schott Mainz
2.06

Schott Mainz creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 27 away

creates per match

FV Engers 07
1.92
Schott Mainz
2.63

allows per match

FV Engers 07
1.49
Schott Mainz
0.85

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw
47%
FV Engers 07 or Schott Mainz
79%
Draw or Schott Mainz
74%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
11%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals
75%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
40%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
16%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
87%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
61%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
33%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more
26%
level
21%
Schott Mainz scores more
53%

Schott Mainz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
M. Stieffenhofer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FV Engers 07 vs Schott Mainz

FV Engers 07 and Schott Mainz drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Wasserturm in Neuwied.