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Schott Mainz vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
4 – 1
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
11/12/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Schott Mainz81%
×Draw12%
Ahrweiler BC6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
2.79
Ahrweiler BC
0.64

Schott Mainz creates 336% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
3.78
Ahrweiler BC
0.60

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.67
Ahrweiler BC
1.80

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
94%
Schott Mainz or Ahrweiler BC
88%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
19%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
61%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
94%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
76%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
52%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
47%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
14%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
93%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.79

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
81%
level
12%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
6%

Schott Mainz at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Schott Mainz 4–1 Ahrweiler BC

Schott Mainz beat Ahrweiler BC 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium in Mainz-Mombach.