Ahrweiler BC 0–3 Schott Mainz: Result & Stats

Ahrweiler BC

FT

0 – 3

Schott Mainz

8/27/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 5Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC17%

×Draw18%

Schott Mainz65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrweiler BCExpected goals in this matchSchott Mainz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.51

Ahrweiler BC

1.23

Schott Mainz

2.51

Schott Mainz creates 104% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

1.60

creates per match

2.63

2.40

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC

1.60

Schott Mainz

2.63

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC

2.40

Schott Mainz

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Schott Mainz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw

35%

Ahrweiler BC or Schott Mainz

82%

Draw or Schott Mainz

83%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

7%

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

71%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

35%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

13%

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

92%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

71%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

21%

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.23

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more

17%

level

18%

Schott Mainz scores more

65%

Schott Mainz at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff