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Schott Mainz U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Schott Mainz U19
Schott Mainz U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
5/2/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1943%
×Draw20%
Saarbrücken U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz U19
2.20
Saarbrücken U19
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19
1.42
Saarbrücken U19
1.19

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19
2.88
Saarbrücken U19
2.97

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par
Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw
63%
Schott Mainz U19 or Saarbrücken U19
80%
Draw or Saarbrücken U19
57%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+
24%
Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals
89%
Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals
64%
Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals
37%
Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
87%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
60%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.20

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
Saarbrücken U19 scores more
37%

Schott Mainz U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Schott Mainz U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Schott
Saarbrücken
P. Staegemann
Manager: P. Staegemann
S. D`Andrea
Manager: S. D`Andrea

U19 Bundesliga: Schott Mainz U19 4–0 Saarbrücken U19

Schott Mainz U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 2, 2026.