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Saarbrücken U19 vs Schott Mainz U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Schott Mainz U19
Schott Mainz U19
2/28/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Saarbrücken U1949%
×Draw20%
Schott Mainz U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
2.26
Schott Mainz U19
1.77

Saarbrücken U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Schott Mainz U19
1.08

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Schott Mainz U19
3.31

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
69%
Saarbrücken U19 or Schott Mainz U19
80%
Draw or Schott Mainz U19
51%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
29%
Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
89%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
66%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
39%
Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals
83%
Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals
53%
Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.26

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
49%
level
20%
Schott Mainz U19 scores more
31%

Saarbrücken U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saarbrücken U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Saarbrücken
Schott
S. D`Andrea
Manager: S. D`Andrea
P. Staegemann
Manager: P. Staegemann

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Schott Mainz U19

Schott Mainz U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.