Schott Mainz U19 1–3 Kaiserslautern U19

Schott Mainz U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kaiserslautern U19

L. Mehmeti 41' (pen)

N. Tamakloe 74'

M. Yüsün 29'

T. Zeigler 24'

2/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1932%

×Draw20%

Kaiserslautern U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

2.25

Schott Mainz U19

1.84

Kaiserslautern U19

2.25

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

1.42

creates per match

1.62

2.88

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

53%

Schott Mainz U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

80%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

68%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

16%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

84%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

55%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

28%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

89%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

65%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

32%

level

20%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

47%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Zeigler

29'

M. Yüsün

41'

L. MehmetiPenalty

46'

K. Benali← B. Patschke

56'

N. Tamakloe← K. Ramadani

56'

V. Haxhiu← D. Tuttobene

62'

P. Trainor← L. Mehmeti

68'

B. Beißmann← P. Mokam

68'

L. Chirivi← S. Bousfia

74'

N. Tamakloe

79'

L. Dumiec← D. Maličević

79'

T. Gündogdu← P. Offermann

79'

79'

79'

87'

Schott

Kaiserslautern

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mehmeti

Manager: P. Staegemann

46'▲K. Benali←▼B. Patschke

62'▲P. Trainor←▼L. Mehmeti

68'▲B. Beißmann←▼P. Mokam

68'▲L. Chirivi←▼S. Bousfia

79'▲L. Dumiec←▼D. Maličević

79'▲T. Gündogdu←▼P. Offermann

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

BenaliTrainorBeißmannChiriviDumiecGündogduBrajovic

Manager: E. Baffoun

56'▲N. Tamakloe←▼K. Ramadani

56'▲V. Haxhiu←▼D. Tuttobene

79'▲E. Müller←▼M. Yüsün

79'▲O. Gibs←▼K. Scheer

79'▲P. Besch←▼M. Baser

87'▲J. Mensah←▼F. Ammann

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

TamakloeHaxhiuMüllerGibsBeschMensahJung

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: T. Zeigler (24'), M. Yüsün (29'), L. Mehmeti (41' pen), N. Tamakloe (74').

The match was played at Mainz Golden Eagles Stadium in Mainz-Mombach.

Schott Mainz U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19