Kaiserslautern U19 2–3 Schott Mainz U19

Kaiserslautern U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Schott Mainz U19

E. Müller 44'

B. Jungfleisch 7'

S. Bousfia 90+2'

H. Balzer 67'

L. Dumiec 53'

4/13/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 10Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kaiserslautern U1963%

×Draw18%

Schott Mainz U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaiserslautern U19Expected goals in this matchSchott Mainz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.35

Kaiserslautern U19

2.58

Schott Mainz U19

1.35

Kaiserslautern U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

1.86

creates per match

1.08

1.63

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.86

Schott Mainz U19

1.08

allows per match

Kaiserslautern U19

1.63

Schott Mainz U19

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern U19 or draw

81%

Kaiserslautern U19 or Schott Mainz U19

82%

Draw or Schott Mainz U19

37%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

42%

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

92%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

72%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

47%

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

74%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

39%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.86 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.58

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

19%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Jungfleisch

44'

E. Müller

46'

L. Dumiec← B. Patschke

53'

57'

60'

67'

68'

K. Ramadani← E. Müller

68'

A. Mehmetaj← K. Scheer

72'

P. Trainor← K. Benali

80'

D. Tuttobene← I. Elyazidi

90+3'

L. Chirivi← L. Mehmeti

90+3'

L. Yoseph← S. Bousfia

90+2'

S. Bousfia

Kaiserslautern

Schott

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: E. Baffoun

60'▲V. Haxhiu←▼A. Doruk

68'▲K. Ramadani←▼E. Müller

68'▲A. Mehmetaj←▼K. Scheer

80'▲D. Tuttobene←▼I. Elyazidi

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

HaxhiuRamadaniMehmetajTuttobeneKamgaGibs

Manager: P. Staegemann

46'▲L. Dumiec←▼B. Patschke

57'▲H. Balzer←▼P. Mokam

72'▲P. Trainor←▼K. Benali

90+3'▲L. Chirivi←▼L. Mehmeti

90+3'▲L. Yoseph←▼S. Bousfia

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

DumiecBalzerTrainorChiriviYosephNeumannGündogdu