Schott Mainz U19 1–2 FSV Frankfurt U19

Schott Mainz U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FSV Frankfurt U19

P. Offermann 64'

D. Demir 69'

L. Simunic 18'

9/28/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 8Otto-Schott-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1934%

×Draw21%

FSV Frankfurt U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.05

Schott Mainz U19

1.76

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.05

FSV Frankfurt U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

1.23

2.88

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

55%

Schott Mainz U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

79%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

66%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

17%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

83%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

52%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

26%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

87%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

61%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

43%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.76

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

34%

level

21%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

45%

FSV Frankfurt U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

L. Simunic

59'

J. Frisch← L. Mehmeti

59'

P. Offermann← B. Beißmann

59'

59'

64'

69'

74'

K. Boss← B. Blum

74'

P. Mokam← T. Eckstein

76'

T. Grimmer← N. Zaatan

78'

L. Kremper← L. Bernjus

82'

C. Pakos← D. Major

82'

M. Meziani← M. Akhouji

82'

Mun Chan-woo← D. Meene

82'

S. Kusumovic← A. Husovic

Schott

FSV

▼

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Staegemann

59'▲J. Frisch←▼L. Mehmeti

59'▲P. Offermann←▼B. Beißmann

59'▲P. Trainor←▼F. Lang

74'▲K. Boss←▼B. Blum

74'▲P. Mokam←▼T. Eckstein

78'▲L. Kremper←▼L. Bernjus

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

FrischOffermannTrainorBossMokamKremperNeumann

Manager: B. Yelken

59'▲D. Demir←▼L. Simunic

76'▲T. Grimmer←▼N. Zaatan

82'▲C. Pakos←▼D. Major

82'▲M. Meziani←▼M. Akhouji

82'▲Mun Chan-woo←▼D. Meene

82'▲S. Kusumovic←▼A. Husovic

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

DemirGrimmerPakosMezianiChan-wooKusumovicSeiler