Schott Mainz U19 0–5 Eintracht Frankf U19

Schott Mainz U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Eintracht Frankf U19

A. Souza 67'

A. Staff 64', 31', 10'

A. Chaikhoun 47'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Otto-Schott-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1924%

×Draw19%

Eintracht Frankf U1958%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott Mainz U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

2.58

Schott Mainz U19

1.62

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.58

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 74 away

1.42

creates per match

2.28

2.88

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19

1.42

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19

2.88

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw

42%

Schott Mainz U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

81%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

76%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

11%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

80%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

48%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

22%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

72%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

24%

level

19%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

58%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Staff

31'

A. Staff

46'

F. Taibi← F. Lang

46'

46'

46'

47'

57'

D. Maličević← T. Gündogdu

57'

P. Offermann← B. Beißmann

58'

G. Vadacca← E. İş

58'

R. Savvidis← M. Spahn

64'

A. Staff

67'

A. Loune← T. Kpebane

67'

L. Husterer← Derek Osei

67'

A. Souza

68'

J. Frisch← P. Trainor

78'

T. Eckstein← F. Wronkowski

Schott

Eintracht

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Staegemann

46'▲F. Taibi←▼F. Lang

46'▲L. Chirivi←▼P. Mokam

57'▲D. Maličević←▼T. Gündogdu

57'▲P. Offermann←▼B. Beißmann

68'▲J. Frisch←▼P. Trainor

78'▲T. Eckstein←▼F. Wronkowski

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

TaibiChiriviMaličevićOffermannFrischEcksteinBrajovic

Manager: H. Rasche

46'▲A. Souza←▼J. Barry

46'▲J. Geike←▼M. Dills

58'▲G. Vadacca←▼E. İş

58'▲R. Savvidis←▼M. Spahn

67'▲A. Loune←▼T. Kpebane

67'▲L. Husterer←▼Derek Osei

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

SouzaGeikeVadaccaSavvidisLouneHustererHeld