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Schott Mainz U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Schott Mainz U19
Schott Mainz U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
K. Benali 86' (pen)
J. Mensah 74'
K. Izekor 64'
I. Eichie 56'
J. Berghoff 35' (pen)
9/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Otto-Schott-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Schott Mainz U1919%
×Draw18%
Bayer Leverkusen U1962%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz U19
1.36
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.54

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 64 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz U19
1.42
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.20

allows per match

Schott Mainz U19
2.88
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.31

finishing

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Schott Mainz U19 or draw
38%
Schott Mainz U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
82%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
81%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+
8%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals
74%
Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals
39%
Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals
16%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
92%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
72%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)
24%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.42 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Schott Mainz U19 scores more
19%
level
18%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
62%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. BerghoffPenalty
56'
I. Eichie
64'
K. Izekor
74'
J. Mensah
86'
K. BenaliPenalty
Schott
Bayer
P. Staegemann
Manager: P. Staegemann
Sergi Runge
Manager: Sergi Runge

Match Recap: Schott Mainz U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Berghoff (35' pen), I. Eichie (56'), K. Izekor (64'), J. Mensah (74'), K. Benali (86' pen).

The match was played at Otto-Schott-Sportzentrum in Mainz.