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Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Schott Mainz U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
11 – 1
HT: 9 – 0
Schott Mainz U19
Schott Mainz U19
11/30/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 13Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1973%
×Draw15%
Schott Mainz U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.96
Schott Mainz U19
1.17

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.62
Schott Mainz U19
1.08

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.26
Schott Mainz U19
3.31

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
88%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Schott Mainz U19
85%
Draw or Schott Mainz U19
27%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
53%
Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
95%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
79%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
55%
Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals
69%
Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals
33%
Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.62 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.96

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
73%
level
15%
Schott Mainz U19 scores more
12%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bayer
Schott
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok
P. Staegemann
Manager: P. Staegemann

Bayer Leverkusen U19 11 – 1 Schott Mainz U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 11-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.