Schott Jena 0–5 Carl Zeiss Jena: Result & Stats

Schott Jena

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Carl Zeiss Jena

M. Grimm 90'

J. Richter 78', 46'

B. Zank 38'

J. Dahlke 36'

7/8/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Schott Jena8%

×Draw10%

Carl Zeiss Jena82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott JenaExpected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

4.31

Schott Jena

1.42

Carl Zeiss Jena

4.31

Carl Zeiss Jena creates 204% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

2.29

6.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Schott Jena

1.33

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.29

allows per match

Schott Jena

6.33

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Jena+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Jena ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–46%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Schott Jena or draw

18%

Schott Jena or Carl Zeiss Jena

90%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena

92%

Winning margin

Schott Jena wins by 2+

3%

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Schott Jena 1+ goals

76%

Schott Jena 2+ goals

41%

Schott Jena 3+ goals

17%

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

98%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

92%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Schott Jena (draw refunded)

9%

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Jena at home — creates 1.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Jena attack 1.33 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.29 + Schott Jena defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Schott Jena scores more

8%

level

10%

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

J. Dahlke

38'

B. Zank

46'

J. Richter

78'

J. Richter

90'

M. Grimm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff