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Schonnebeck vs Kleve — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kleve
Kleve
9/26/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Sportanlage Schetters Busch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Schonnebeck59%
×Draw20%
Kleve22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schonnebeck
2.32
Kleve
1.36

Schonnebeck creates 71% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Schonnebeck
2.67
Kleve
1.31

allows per match

Schonnebeck
1.41
Kleve
1.97

finishing

Schonnebeck+0.00on par
Kleve+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schonnebeck ↓

Kleve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Schonnebeck or draw
78%
Schonnebeck or Kleve
80%
Draw or Kleve
41%

Winning margin

Schonnebeck wins by 2+
37%
Kleve wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Schonnebeck 1+ goals
90%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
67%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
40%
Kleve 1+ goals
74%
Kleve 2+ goals
39%
Kleve 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
73%
Kleve (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schonnebeck at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.41 · 90 matches

Kleve away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.97 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schonnebeck attack 2.67 + Kleve defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.32

Kleve attack 1.31 + Schonnebeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Schonnebeck scores more
59%
level
20%
Kleve scores more
22%

Schonnebeck at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schonnebeck vs Kleve

Schonnebeck and Kleve drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Schetters Busch in Essen.