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Kleve vs Schonnebeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Kleve
Kleve
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
3/22/2026Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24Eroglu-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Kleve36%
×Draw23%
Schonnebeck41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kleve
1.61
Schonnebeck
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kleve
1.66
Schonnebeck
2.00

allows per match

Kleve
1.51
Schonnebeck
1.57

finishing

Kleve+0.00on par
Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kleve ↓

Schonnebeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kleve or draw
59%
Kleve or Schonnebeck
77%
Draw or Schonnebeck
64%

Winning margin

Kleve wins by 2+
17%
Schonnebeck wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kleve 1+ goals
80%
Kleve 2+ goals
48%
Kleve 3+ goals
22%
Schonnebeck 1+ goals
83%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
52%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kleve (draw refunded)
46%
Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kleve at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

Schonnebeck away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kleve attack 1.66 + Schonnebeck defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Schonnebeck attack 2.00 + Kleve defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kleve scores more
36%
level
23%
Schonnebeck scores more
41%

Schonnebeck at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kleve vs Schonnebeck

Kleve beat Schonnebeck 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Eroglu-Arena in Kleve.