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Schladming vs Frohnleiten — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Schladming
Schladming
FT
4 – 1
Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
9/27/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schladming71%
×Draw16%
Frohnleiten13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schladming
2.69
Frohnleiten
1.09

Schladming creates 147% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Schladming
1.38
Frohnleiten
0.60

allows per match

Schladming
1.58
Frohnleiten
4.00

finishing

Schladming+0.00on par
Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schladming ↓

Frohnleiten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Schladming or draw
87%
Schladming or Frohnleiten
84%
Draw or Frohnleiten
29%

Winning margin

Schladming wins by 2+
49%
Frohnleiten wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Schladming 1+ goals
93%
Schladming 2+ goals
74%
Schladming 3+ goals
49%
Frohnleiten 1+ goals
66%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
30%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Schladming (draw refunded)
84%
Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schladming at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schladming attack 1.38 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + Schladming defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Schladming scores more
71%
level
16%
Frohnleiten scores more
13%

Schladming at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Schladming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Schladming vs Frohnleiten

Schladming beat Frohnleiten 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Hohenhaus Tenne Area Schladming in Schladming.