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Frohnleiten vs Schladming — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Schladming
Schladming
5/2/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Franz Feldgrill-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frohnleiten26%
×Draw23%
Schladming51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frohnleiten
1.29
Schladming
1.89

Schladming creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Frohnleiten
0.73
Schladming
1.31

allows per match

Frohnleiten
2.47
Schladming
1.84

finishing

Frohnleiten+0.00on par
Schladming+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frohnleiten ↓

Schladming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Frohnleiten or draw
49%
Frohnleiten or Schladming
77%
Draw or Schladming
74%

Winning margin

Frohnleiten wins by 2+
11%
Schladming wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Frohnleiten 1+ goals
72%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
37%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
14%
Schladming 1+ goals
85%
Schladming 2+ goals
56%
Schladming 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
34%
Schladming (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frohnleiten at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Schladming away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frohnleiten attack 0.73 + Schladming defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Schladming attack 1.31 + Frohnleiten defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frohnleiten scores more
26%
level
23%
Schladming scores more
51%

Schladming at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Schladming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Frohnleiten 1–2 Schladming

Schladming beat Frohnleiten 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Franz Feldgrill-Stadion in Frohnleiten.