Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Dinamo Pančevo

Bratstvo Prigrevica

CANC

00:00

Dinamo Pančevo

3/28/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Prigrevica Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica51%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Pančevo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo PrigrevicaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.66

Dinamo Pančevo

1.07

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 55% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 102 away

1.72

creates per match

1.13

1.02

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.72

Dinamo Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.02

Dinamo Pančevo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw

75%

Bratstvo Prigrevica or Dinamo Pančevo

76%

Draw or Dinamo Pančevo

49%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals

81%

Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals

49%

Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)

68%

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more

51%

level

24%

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

25%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.