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Dinamo Pančevo vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
2 – 1
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
11/21/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo43%
×Draw26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.41
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.13

Dinamo Pančevo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
70%
Dinamo Pančevo or Bratstvo Prigrevica
74%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
21%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
17%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
68%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
31%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
59%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
43%
level
26%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
30%

Dinamo Pančevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 2–1 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Dinamo Pančevo beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.