Schifflange 1–3 AS Jeunesse Esch: Result & Stats

Schifflange

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AS Jeunesse Esch

4/28/2024

National Division · Round 26Stade Rue Denis Netgen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Schifflange34%

×Draw24%

AS Jeunesse Esch42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchifflangeExpected goals in this matchAS Jeunesse Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.59

Schifflange

1.42

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.59

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

1.40

creates per match

1.31

1.87

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Schifflange

1.40

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.31

allows per match

Schifflange

1.87

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schifflange+0.00on par

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schifflange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Schifflange or draw

58%

Schifflange or AS Jeunesse Esch

76%

Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch

66%

Winning margin

Schifflange wins by 2+

16%

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Schifflange 1+ goals

76%

Schifflange 2+ goals

41%

Schifflange 3+ goals

17%

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

80%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

47%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Schifflange (draw refunded)

45%

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schifflange at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schifflange attack 1.40 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Schifflange defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Schifflange scores more

34%

level

24%

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

42%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff