AS Jeunesse Esch 3–3 Schifflange: Result & Stats

AS Jeunesse Esch

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Schifflange

11/12/2023

National Division · Round 12Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch54%

×Draw23%

Schifflange23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Jeunesse EschExpected goals in this matchSchifflange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.11

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.84

Schifflange

1.11

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 66% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.62

Schifflange

1.00

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.23

Schifflange

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Schifflange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw

77%

AS Jeunesse Esch or Schifflange

77%

Draw or Schifflange

46%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

31%

Schifflange wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

84%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

55%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

28%

Schifflange 1+ goals

67%

Schifflange 2+ goals

30%

Schifflange 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

70%

Schifflange (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Schifflange away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Schifflange defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.84

Schifflange attack 1.00 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

54%

level

23%

Schifflange scores more

23%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff