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Schermbeck vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Schermbeck
Schermbeck
FT
5 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
5/11/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 35Volksbank-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Schermbeck60%
×Draw19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schermbeck
2.55
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.50

Schermbeck creates 70% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

Schermbeck
1.67
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Schermbeck
1.71
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Schermbeck+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schermbeck ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Schermbeck or draw
78%
Schermbeck or Concordia Wiemelhausen
81%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
40%

Winning margin

Schermbeck wins by 2+
39%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Schermbeck 1+ goals
92%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
72%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
46%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
78%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
44%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Schermbeck (draw refunded)
73%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schermbeck at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schermbeck attack 1.67 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.55

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Schermbeck defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Schermbeck scores more
60%
level
19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
22%

Schermbeck at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Schermbeck 5–3 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Schermbeck beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 5-3 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Volksbank-Arena in Schermbeck.