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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Schermbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
4 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Schermbeck
Schermbeck
F. Ozturk 90+1'
A. Uzunbas 83'
P. Zippel 54'
B. Yerli 46' (pen)
T. Karagulmez 63' (pen)
E. Ozat 60'
K. Schacht 35', 27'
11/23/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen37%
×Draw21%
Schermbeck42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.88
Schermbeck
1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Schermbeck
1.51

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Schermbeck
1.72

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Schermbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Schermbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
58%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Schermbeck
79%
Draw or Schermbeck
63%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
20%
Schermbeck wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
85%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
56%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
29%
Schermbeck 1+ goals
86%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
59%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
47%
Schermbeck (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Schermbeck away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.72 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Schermbeck defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Schermbeck attack 1.51 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
37%
level
21%
Schermbeck scores more
42%

Schermbeck at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Schermbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
K. Schacht
35'
K. Schacht
46'
B. YerliPenalty
54'
P. Zippel
60'
E. Ozat
63'
T. KaragulmezPenalty
83'
A. Uzunbas
90+1'
F. Ozturk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 4–4 Schermbeck

Concordia Wiemelhausen and Schermbeck drew 4-4 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 23, 2024.

Goals: K. Schacht (27', 35'), B. Yerli (46' pen), P. Zippel (54'), E. Ozat (60'), T. Karagulmez (63' pen), A. Uzunbas (83'), F. Ozturk (90+1').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.