Schalke 04 U19 1–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Schalke 04 U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

M. Wallentowitz 50'

3/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 7Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Schalke 04 U1966%

×Draw18%

Chemnitzer FC U1916%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.18

Schalke 04 U19

2.52

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.18

Schalke 04 U19 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

2.30

creates per match

1.41

0.95

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Schalke 04 U19

2.30

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

Schalke 04 U19

0.95

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Schalke 04 U19 or draw

84%

Schalke 04 U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

82%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

34%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

44%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

92%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

71%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

45%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

69%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

33%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.30 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.52

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

16%

Schalke 04 U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

B. Weber

36'

B. Weber

43'

B. Dardari← M. Tubić

43'

C. Bettoni Katunda← Alan Takoudjou

43'

E. Gashi← N. Westenberger

50'

M. Wallentowitz

55'

M. Lenz← L. Brückner

55'

P. Philipp← P. Sauer

66'

J. N'Diaye← M. Wallentowitz

77'

B. Schmidt← N. Tänzer

77'

G. Hempel← T. Taubert

86'

J. Ullmann← J. von Baer

86'

K. Mauersberger← F. Kunstmann

90+4'

K. Sayman← E. Gashi

90+4'

T. Pfeiffer← B. Dardari

Schalke

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wallentow

▼

Tubić

Manager: N. Elgert

43'▲B. Dardari←▼M. Tubić

43'▲C. Bettoni Katunda←▼Alan Takoudjou

43'▲E. Gashi←▼N. Westenberger

66'▲J. N'Diaye←▼M. Wallentowitz

90+4'▲K. Sayman←▼E. Gashi

90+4'▲T. Pfeiffer←▼B. Dardari

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

DardariKatundaGashiN'DiayeSaymanPfeifferHöfel

Manager: T. Wappler

55'▲M. Lenz←▼L. Brückner

55'▲P. Philipp←▼P. Sauer

77'▲B. Schmidt←▼N. Tänzer

77'▲G. Hempel←▼T. Taubert

86'▲J. Ullmann←▼J. von Baer

86'▲K. Mauersberger←▼F. Kunstmann

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

LenzPhilippSchmidtHempelUllmannMauersbergerWimmer

Match Recap: Schalke 04 U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Wallentowitz (50').

The match was played at Parkstadion in Gelsenkirchen.

Schalke 04 U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Schalke 04 U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19