Chemnitzer FC U19 0–2 Schalke 04 U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Schalke 04 U19

M. Tubić 77', 53'

3/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1925%

×Draw21%

Schalke 04 U1954%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.08

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.34

Schalke 04 U19

2.08

Schalke 04 U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

1.45

creates per match

2.00

2.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

46%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Schalke 04 U19

79%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

75%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

10%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

74%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

39%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

15%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

87%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

61%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

25%

level

21%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

54%

Schalke 04 U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

C. Bettoni Katunda← J. Zgorecki

42'

J. Ullmann← P. Jähn

46'

T. Taubert← K. Mauersberger

46'

M. Tubić← J. NDiaye

46'

B. Numbisie← M. Wallentowitz

46'

Alan Takoudjou← B. Dardari

53'

M. Tubić

63'

64'

T. Pfeiffer← B. Weber

75'

B. Schmidt← N. Tänzer

77'

81'

81'

81'

81'

N. Westenberger← S. Thier

Chemnitzer

Schalke

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Wappler

42'▲J. Ullmann←▼P. Jähn

46'▲T. Taubert←▼K. Mauersberger

75'▲B. Schmidt←▼N. Tänzer

81'▲A. Zamora←▼P. Sauer

81'▲G. Hempel←▼M. Lenz

81'▲G. Tóth←▼A. Mensah

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

UllmannTaubertSchmidtZamoraHempelTóthWimmer

Manager: N. Elgert

29'▲C. Bettoni Katunda←▼J. Zgorecki

46'▲M. Tubić←▼J. NDiaye

46'▲B. Numbisie←▼M. Wallentowitz

46'▲Alan Takoudjou←▼B. Dardari

64'▲T. Pfeiffer←▼B. Weber

81'▲N. Westenberger←▼S. Thier

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

KatundaTubićNumbisieTakoudjouPfeifferWestenbergerBodon

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 0–2 Schalke 04 U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Tubić (53', 77').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Chemnitzer FC U19 0–2 Schalke 04 U19