Schalke 04 II 1–5 Paderborn II: Result & Stats

Schalke 04 II

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Paderborn II

Y. Tonye 9'

N. Nadj 85'

M. Hoffmeister 81'

T. de Jong 66'

T. Bohmer 60'

J. Vega Zambrano 39'

1/14/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Am Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Schalke 04 II50%

×Draw21%

Paderborn II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 IIExpected goals in this matchPaderborn II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.50

Schalke 04 II

2.06

Paderborn II

1.50

Schalke 04 II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

1.86

1.13

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Schalke 04 II

2.25

Paderborn II

1.86

allows per match

Schalke 04 II

1.13

Paderborn II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 II ↓

Paderborn II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Schalke 04 II or draw

72%

Schalke 04 II or Paderborn II

79%

Draw or Paderborn II

50%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 II wins by 2+

29%

Paderborn II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Schalke 04 II 1+ goals

87%

Schalke 04 II 2+ goals

61%

Schalke 04 II 3+ goals

34%

Paderborn II 1+ goals

78%

Paderborn II 2+ goals

44%

Paderborn II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)

64%

Paderborn II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 II attack 2.25 + Paderborn II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Paderborn II attack 1.86 + Schalke 04 II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Schalke 04 II scores more

50%

level

21%

Paderborn II scores more

28%

Schalke 04 II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Schalke 04 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

39'

60'

66'

81'

85'

Schalke

Paderborn

Manager: J. Fimpel

Manager: T. Bertels