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Paderborn II vs Schalke 04 II — League #87 2026

Paderborn II
Paderborn II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Schalke 04 II
Schalke 04 II
J. Bugenhagen 15'
Y. Ben Balla 29'
3/24/2026League #87League #87 · West - 19Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Paderborn II50%
×Draw24%
Schalke 04 II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paderborn II
1.75
Schalke 04 II
1.21

Paderborn II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Paderborn II
1.50
Schalke 04 II
1.43

allows per match

Paderborn II
1.00
Schalke 04 II
2.00

finishing

Paderborn II+0.00on par
Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn II ↓

Schalke 04 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paderborn II or draw
74%
Paderborn II or Schalke 04 II
76%
Draw or Schalke 04 II
50%

Winning margin

Paderborn II wins by 2+
27%
Schalke 04 II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Paderborn II 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
52%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
25%
Schalke 04 II 1+ goals
70%
Schalke 04 II 2+ goals
34%
Schalke 04 II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paderborn II (draw refunded)
65%
Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn II attack 1.50 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Schalke 04 II attack 1.43 + Paderborn II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Paderborn II scores more
50%
level
24%
Schalke 04 II scores more
26%

Paderborn II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paderborn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Bugenhagen
29'
Y. Ben Balla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #87: Paderborn II 1–1 Schalke 04 II

Paderborn II and Schalke 04 II drew 1-1 in League #87 on March 24, 2026.

Goals: J. Bugenhagen (15'), Y. Ben Balla (29').

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.