Schalding-Heining 2–1 FC Schweinfurt 05

Schalding-Heining

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Schweinfurt 05

8/22/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2Sportanlage Reuthinger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Schalding-Heining36%

×Draw23%

FC Schweinfurt 0541%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalding-HeiningExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.66

Schalding-Heining

1.53

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

1.19

creates per match

1.75

1.56

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Schalding-Heining

1.19

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.75

allows per match

Schalding-Heining

1.56

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalding-Heining ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Schalding-Heining or draw

59%

Schalding-Heining or FC Schweinfurt 05

77%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

64%

Winning margin

Schalding-Heining wins by 2+

17%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Schalding-Heining 1+ goals

78%

Schalding-Heining 2+ goals

45%

Schalding-Heining 3+ goals

20%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

81%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

49%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)

46%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalding-Heining at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.56 · 48 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalding-Heining attack 1.19 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.75 + Schalding-Heining defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Schalding-Heining scores more

36%

level

23%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

41%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff