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FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Schalding-Heining — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Schalding-Heining
Schalding-Heining
11/4/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19Willy-Sachs-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FC Schweinfurt 0567%
×Draw18%
Schalding-Heining15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Schweinfurt 05
2.43
Schalding-Heining
1.05

FC Schweinfurt 05 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

creates per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
2.29
Schalding-Heining
0.90

allows per match

FC Schweinfurt 05
1.20
Schalding-Heining
2.57

finishing

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par
Schalding-Heining+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schweinfurt 05 ↓

Schalding-Heining →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Schweinfurt 05 or draw
85%
FC Schweinfurt 05 or Schalding-Heining
82%
Draw or Schalding-Heining
33%

Winning margin

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
45%
Schalding-Heining wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
91%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
69%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
43%
Schalding-Heining 1+ goals
65%
Schalding-Heining 2+ goals
28%
Schalding-Heining 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
82%
Schalding-Heining (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schweinfurt 05 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 66 matches

Schalding-Heining away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 2.29 + Schalding-Heining defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.43

Schalding-Heining attack 0.90 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
67%
level
18%
Schalding-Heining scores more
15%

FC Schweinfurt 05 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Schweinfurt 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: FC Schweinfurt 05 3–1 Schalding-Heining

FC Schweinfurt 05 beat Schalding-Heining 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Willy-Sachs-Stadion in Schweinfurt.