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SC Wiener Neustadt vs Haitzendorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

SC Wiener Neustadt
SC Wiener Neustadt
FT
2 – 2
Haitzendorf
Haitzendorf
5/10/2024Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 25Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SC Wiener Neustadt51%
×Draw23%
Haitzendorf26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.87
Haitzendorf
1.29

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.91
Haitzendorf
1.21

allows per match

SC Wiener Neustadt
1.36
Haitzendorf
1.83

finishing

SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par
Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wiener Neustadt ↓

Haitzendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SC Wiener Neustadt or draw
74%
SC Wiener Neustadt or Haitzendorf
77%
Draw or Haitzendorf
49%

Winning margin

SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+
29%
Haitzendorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals
85%
SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals
56%
SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals
29%
Haitzendorf 1+ goals
72%
Haitzendorf 2+ goals
37%
Haitzendorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)
66%
Haitzendorf (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wiener Neustadt at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Haitzendorf away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.91 + Haitzendorf defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.87

Haitzendorf attack 1.21 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Wiener Neustadt scores more
51%
level
23%
Haitzendorf scores more
26%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Wiener Neustadt vs Haitzendorf

SC Wiener Neustadt and Haitzendorf drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena in Wiener Neustadt.