Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haitzendorf vs SC Wiener Neustadt — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Haitzendorf
Haitzendorf
FT
5 – 1
SC Wiener Neustadt
SC Wiener Neustadt
10/8/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 10Sportplatz Haitzendorf SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Haitzendorf32%
×Draw24%
SC Wiener Neustadt44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haitzendorf
1.41
SC Wiener Neustadt
1.70

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Haitzendorf
1.86
SC Wiener Neustadt
1.80

allows per match

Haitzendorf
1.59
SC Wiener Neustadt
0.96

finishing

Haitzendorf+0.00on par
SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haitzendorf ↓

SC Wiener Neustadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Haitzendorf or draw
56%
Haitzendorf or SC Wiener Neustadt
76%
Draw or SC Wiener Neustadt
68%

Winning margin

Haitzendorf wins by 2+
14%
SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Haitzendorf 1+ goals
76%
Haitzendorf 2+ goals
41%
Haitzendorf 3+ goals
17%
SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals
82%
SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals
51%
SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Haitzendorf (draw refunded)
42%
SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haitzendorf at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

SC Wiener Neustadt away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haitzendorf attack 1.86 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.41

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.80 + Haitzendorf defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haitzendorf scores more
32%
level
24%
SC Wiener Neustadt scores more
44%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haitzendorf vs SC Wiener Neustadt

Haitzendorf beat SC Wiener Neustadt 5-1 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Haitzendorf SV in Haitzendorf.