SC Wanderers 0–5 Peninsula Power: Result & Stats

SC Wanderers

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Peninsula Power

K. Turnbull 90'

K. Flemington 85', 53', 49'

N. Joseph 9'

6/8/2025

Queensland NPL · Round 13Ballinger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

SC Wanderers27%

×Draw22%

Peninsula Power52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC WanderersExpected goals in this matchPeninsula Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.04

SC Wanderers

1.41

Peninsula Power

2.04

Peninsula Power creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 93 away

1.55

creates per match

2.14

1.95

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

SC Wanderers

1.55

Peninsula Power

2.14

allows per match

SC Wanderers

1.95

Peninsula Power

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Peninsula Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw

48%

SC Wanderers or Peninsula Power

78%

Draw or Peninsula Power

73%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

12%

Peninsula Power wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

76%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

41%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

17%

Peninsula Power 1+ goals

87%

Peninsula Power 2+ goals

60%

Peninsula Power 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

34%

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.95 · 80 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.27 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.55 + Peninsula Power defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Peninsula Power attack 2.14 + SC Wanderers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Wanderers scores more

27%

level

22%

Peninsula Power scores more

52%

Peninsula Power at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

N. Joseph

49'

K. Flemington

53'

K. Flemington

69'

J. Townsend

85'

K. Flemington

90'

K. Turnbull

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff