Peninsula Power 1–2 SC Wanderers: Result & Stats

Peninsula Power

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

SC Wanderers

K. Akamatsu 22'

K. Higuchi 28'

M. Brown 5'

4/20/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 8A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Peninsula Power61%

×Draw19%

SC Wanderers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peninsula PowerExpected goals in this matchSC Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.27

Peninsula Power

2.37

SC Wanderers

1.27

Peninsula Power creates 87% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

2.33

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Peninsula Power

2.33

SC Wanderers

1.33

allows per match

Peninsula Power

1.20

SC Wanderers

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

SC Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw

81%

Peninsula Power or SC Wanderers

81%

Draw or SC Wanderers

39%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+

40%

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals

91%

Peninsula Power 2+ goals

68%

Peninsula Power 3+ goals

42%

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

72%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

36%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)

76%

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.41 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.33 + SC Wanderers defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.37

SC Wanderers attack 1.33 + Peninsula Power defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Peninsula Power scores more

61%

level

19%

SC Wanderers scores more

19%

Peninsula Power at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Brown

22'

K. Akamatsu

28'

K. Higuchi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff