SC Wanderers 1–4 Magpies Crusaders: Result & Stats

SC Wanderers

FT

1 – 4

Magpies Crusaders

6/25/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 15Kawana Sports Precinct Field 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SC Wanderers42%

×Draw20%

Magpies Crusaders38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC WanderersExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

2.19

SC Wanderers

2.31

Magpies Crusaders

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

2.50

1.88

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

SC Wanderers

1.63

Magpies Crusaders

2.50

allows per match

SC Wanderers

1.88

Magpies Crusaders

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw

62%

SC Wanderers or Magpies Crusaders

80%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

58%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

24%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

90%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

67%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

40%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

89%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

64%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

53%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 40 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.63 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + SC Wanderers defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Wanderers scores more

42%

level

20%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

38%

SC Wanderers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff