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SC Wanderers vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
1 – 3
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
6/29/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 22Kawana Sports Precinct Field 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SC Wanderers52%
×Draw21%
Magpies Crusaders27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
2.19
Magpies Crusaders
1.54

SC Wanderers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 30 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.49
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.98
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
73%
SC Wanderers or Magpies Crusaders
79%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
48%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
31%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
89%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
64%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
37%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
79%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
45%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
66%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 83 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.49 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.19

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + SC Wanderers defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
52%
level
21%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
27%

SC Wanderers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SC Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Wanderers vs Magpies Crusaders

Magpies Crusaders beat SC Wanderers 3-1 in Queensland NPL on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Kawana Sports Precinct Field 5 in Bokarina.