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SC Wanderers vs Brisbane City — Queensland NPL 2026

SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brisbane City
Brisbane City
6/4/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 13Ballinger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

SC Wanderers32%
×Draw22%
Brisbane City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Wanderers
1.63
Brisbane City
2.00

Brisbane City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

SC Wanderers
1.49
Brisbane City
2.02

allows per match

SC Wanderers
1.98
Brisbane City
1.76

finishing

SC Wanderers+0.00on par
Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wanderers ↓

Brisbane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SC Wanderers or draw
53%
SC Wanderers or Brisbane City
78%
Draw or Brisbane City
68%

Winning margin

SC Wanderers wins by 2+
15%
Brisbane City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

SC Wanderers 1+ goals
80%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
48%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
22%
Brisbane City 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
59%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
41%
Brisbane City (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wanderers at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.98 · 83 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wanderers attack 1.49 + Brisbane City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Brisbane City attack 2.02 + SC Wanderers defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SC Wanderers scores more
32%
level
22%
Brisbane City scores more
47%

Brisbane City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Wanderers vs Brisbane City

SC Wanderers beat Brisbane City 2-1 in Queensland NPL on June 4, 2024.

The match was played at Ballinger Park in Buderim.