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Brisbane City vs SC Wanderers — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
5/24/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 11Imperial Corp Stadium 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Brisbane City49%
×Draw21%
SC Wanderers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
2.16
SC Wanderers
1.66

Brisbane City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.83
SC Wanderers
1.33

allows per match

Brisbane City
1.99
SC Wanderers
2.49

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

SC Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
70%
Brisbane City or SC Wanderers
79%
Draw or SC Wanderers
51%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
29%
SC Wanderers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
88%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
63%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
36%
SC Wanderers 1+ goals
81%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
49%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
62%
SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.99 · 81 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.83 + SC Wanderers defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.16

SC Wanderers attack 1.33 + Brisbane City defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brisbane City scores more
49%
level
21%
SC Wanderers scores more
30%

Brisbane City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brisbane City vs SC Wanderers

Brisbane City and SC Wanderers drew 1-1 in Queensland NPL on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Imperial Corp Stadium 1 in Brisbane.