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SC Villa vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

SC Villa
SC Villa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
4/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Betway Muteesa II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SC Villa72%
×Draw18%
Mbale Heroes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Villa
2.15
Mbale Heroes
0.65

SC Villa creates 231% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

SC Villa
1.49
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

SC Villa
0.76
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

SC Villa+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Villa ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SC Villa or draw
90%
SC Villa or Mbale Heroes
82%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
28%

Winning margin

SC Villa wins by 2+
47%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

SC Villa 1+ goals
88%
SC Villa 2+ goals
63%
SC Villa 3+ goals
36%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
48%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
14%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SC Villa (draw refunded)
88%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Villa attack 1.49 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + SC Villa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SC Villa scores more
72%
level
18%
Mbale Heroes scores more
10%

SC Villa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: SC Villa 3–1 Mbale Heroes

SC Villa beat Mbale Heroes 3-1 in Premier League on April 10, 2025.

The match was played at Betway Muteesa II Stadium in Kampala.