Mbale Heroes 1–0 SC Villa: Result & Stats

Mbale Heroes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC Villa

C. Waiswa 85'

9/22/2024

Premier League · Round 2Mbale Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbale Heroes17%

×Draw28%

SC Villa55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbale HeroesExpected goals in this matchSC Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.40

Mbale Heroes

0.65

SC Villa

1.40

SC Villa creates 115% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

0.33

creates per match

0.99

1.80

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Mbale Heroes

0.33

SC Villa

0.99

allows per match

Mbale Heroes

1.80

SC Villa

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

SC Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbale Heroes ↓

SC Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–118%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mbale Heroes or draw

45%

Mbale Heroes or SC Villa

72%

Draw or SC Villa

83%

Winning margin

Mbale Heroes wins by 2+

5%

SC Villa wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Mbale Heroes 1+ goals

48%

Mbale Heroes 2+ goals

14%

Mbale Heroes 3+ goals

3%

SC Villa 1+ goals

75%

SC Villa 2+ goals

41%

SC Villa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)

24%

SC Villa (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbale Heroes at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

SC Villa away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbale Heroes attack 0.33 + SC Villa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.65

SC Villa attack 0.99 + Mbale Heroes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mbale Heroes scores more

17%

level

28%

SC Villa scores more

55%

SC Villa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Kasozi

34'

T. Atukunda

45'

53'

A. Ssemakula

73'

P. Onzima← P. Onzima

73'

M. Semugera← M. Semugera

73'

C. Lwanga← C. Lwanga

85'

C. Waiswa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff