SC Velbert 4–0 Jahn Hiesfeld: Result & Stats

SC Velbert

FT

4 – 0

Jahn Hiesfeld

10/21/2020

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 10Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert49%

×Draw21%

Jahn Hiesfeld30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC VelbertExpected goals in this matchJahn Hiesfeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.66

SC Velbert

2.13

Jahn Hiesfeld

1.66

SC Velbert creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.81

creates per match

1.50

1.81

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

SC Velbert

1.81

Jahn Hiesfeld

1.50

allows per match

SC Velbert

1.81

Jahn Hiesfeld

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw

70%

SC Velbert or Jahn Hiesfeld

79%

Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld

51%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+

28%

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals

88%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

63%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

35%

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals

81%

Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals

49%

Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

61%

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.13

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC Velbert scores more

49%

level

21%

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more

30%

SC Velbert at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff