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Jahn Hiesfeld vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
17:30
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
4/1/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld59%
×Draw19%
SC Velbert22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.41
SC Velbert
1.43

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
78%
Jahn Hiesfeld or SC Velbert
81%
Draw or SC Velbert
41%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
37%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
91%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
69%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
43%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
76%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
42%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
73%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.41

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
59%
level
19%
SC Velbert scores more
22%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld face SC Velbert (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Jahn Hiesfeld hosting SC Velbert. Match starts April 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jahn Hiesfeld host SC Velbert at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.