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SC Velbert vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SC Velbert
SC Velbert
CANC
13:00
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
6/13/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 45Sportplatz Am Böttinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SC Velbert37%
×Draw22%
Germania Ratingen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Velbert
1.74
Germania Ratingen
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

SC Velbert
1.81
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

SC Velbert+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Velbert ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SC Velbert or draw
59%
SC Velbert or Germania Ratingen
78%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
63%

Winning margin

SC Velbert wins by 2+
19%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SC Velbert 1+ goals
82%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
52%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
25%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
84%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
54%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SC Velbert (draw refunded)
48%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Velbert at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Velbert attack 1.81 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + SC Velbert defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SC Velbert scores more
37%
level
22%
Germania Ratingen scores more
41%

Germania Ratingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SC Velbert vs Germania Ratingen — Match Preview

SC Velbert face Germania Ratingen on June 13, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SC Velbert host Germania Ratingen at Sportplatz Am Böttinger.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.