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Germania Ratingen vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
CANC
14:00
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
1/24/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Germania Ratingen68%
×Draw17%
SC Velbert15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.52
SC Velbert
1.11

Germania Ratingen creates 127% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 22 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
85%
Germania Ratingen or SC Velbert
83%
Draw or SC Velbert
32%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
46%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
92%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
71%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
45%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
67%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
30%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
82%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.52

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
68%
level
17%
SC Velbert scores more
15%

Germania Ratingen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Germania Ratingen host SC Velbert

January 24, 2021: Germania Ratingen take on SC Velbert in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Germania Ratingen host SC Velbert at Stadion Ratingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.