SC St. Tönis 4–2 Meerbusch: Result & Stats

SC St. Tönis

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Meerbusch

4/12/2026

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 27Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

SC St. Tönis49%

×Draw21%

Meerbusch30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC St. TönisExpected goals in this matchMeerbusch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.58

SC St. Tönis

2.08

Meerbusch

1.58

SC St. Tönis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 92 away

2.14

creates per match

1.61

1.56

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

SC St. Tönis

2.14

Meerbusch

1.61

allows per match

SC St. Tönis

1.56

Meerbusch

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

Meerbusch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw

70%

SC St. Tönis or Meerbusch

79%

Draw or Meerbusch

51%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

29%

Meerbusch wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

87%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

61%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

34%

Meerbusch 1+ goals

79%

Meerbusch 2+ goals

47%

Meerbusch 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

62%

Meerbusch (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.08

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more

49%

level

21%

Meerbusch scores more

30%

SC St. Tönis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff