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Meerbusch vs SC St. Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
5 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
SC St. Tönis
SC St. Tönis
5/1/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Meerbusch34%
×Draw22%
SC St. Tönis44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
1.65
SC St. Tönis
1.92

SC St. Tönis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 70 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
SC St. Tönis
1.97

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
SC St. Tönis
1.56

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

SC St. Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
56%
Meerbusch or SC St. Tönis
78%
Draw or SC St. Tönis
66%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
16%
SC St. Tönis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
81%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
49%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
23%
SC St. Tönis 1+ goals
85%
SC St. Tönis 2+ goals
57%
SC St. Tönis 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
43%
SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meerbusch scores more
34%
level
22%
SC St. Tönis scores more
44%

SC St. Tönis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Meerbusch 5–4 SC St. Tönis

Meerbusch beat SC St. Tönis 5-4 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lank in Meerbusch.