SC St. Tönis 6–2 Kray: Result & Stats

SC St. Tönis

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Kray

5/14/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 38Jahn-Sport-Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

SC St. Tönis60%

×Draw20%

Kray20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC St. TönisExpected goals in this matchKray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.28

SC St. Tönis

2.31

Kray

1.28

SC St. Tönis creates 80% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 40 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

1.56

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

SC St. Tönis

2.14

Kray

1.00

allows per match

SC St. Tönis

1.56

Kray

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC St. Tönis ↓

Kray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

SC St. Tönis or draw

80%

SC St. Tönis or Kray

80%

Draw or Kray

40%

Winning margin

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

38%

Kray wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

90%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

67%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

40%

Kray 1+ goals

72%

Kray 2+ goals

37%

Kray 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

75%

Kray (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC St. Tönis at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC St. Tönis attack 2.14 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.31

Kray attack 1.00 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SC St. Tönis scores more

60%

level

20%

Kray scores more

20%

SC St. Tönis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff