Kray 2–1 SC St. Tönis: Result & Stats

Kray

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SC St. Tönis

11/6/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17KrayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kray29%

×Draw21%

SC St. Tönis50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrayExpected goals in this matchSC St. Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

2.21

Kray

1.65

SC St. Tönis

2.21

SC St. Tönis creates 34% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

1.73

creates per match

1.97

2.44

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kray

1.73

SC St. Tönis

1.97

allows per match

Kray

2.44

SC St. Tönis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kray+0.00on par

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kray ↓

SC St. Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Kray or draw

50%

Kray or SC St. Tönis

79%

Draw or SC St. Tönis

71%

Winning margin

Kray wins by 2+

14%

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kray 1+ goals

81%

Kray 2+ goals

49%

Kray 3+ goals

23%

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

89%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

65%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Kray (draw refunded)

37%

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kray at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kray attack 1.73 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + Kray defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kray scores more

29%

level

21%

SC St. Tönis scores more

50%

SC St. Tönis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff